R.B.B. Dickison


Executive Summary

This report provides refinements of the BioSIM model by Dr. Jacques Régnière and associates for prediction of spruce budworm larval development, specifically (a) customization of the model for use in Ontario, and (b) an examination of the model I s capability to produce improved results by the incorporation of predictions of shoot development indices.

The customization involved the specification of eco-geographical zones and the creation of an expanded and up-dated climatological databank for Ontario. Within an area specified by the Provincial Operations Branch, OMNR, 26 eco-geographical zones were specified in relation to the ecological classification system given in the publication "Ecoregions of Ontario" by Wickware and Rubec (1989), and the identification parameters added to an Ontario version of the model. The databank was created using newly available standard normal period temperatures for the period 1961-90, which required extensive adjustment of previously published normals.

The study of foliar development, using N.B. Forest Pest Management field observational data over the period 1988-93, revealed a much poorer association of shoot development with selected block opening dates than was the case for larval development, -coefficients of variation being approximately twice as high for shoot development data. It is recommended that combining shoot index as a predictor for use within BioSIM offers little promise.